Industry Overview

Transportation Fuels
In FY 2024-25, the transportation fuel sector faced demand growth challenges on the back of geopolitics, energy transition, efficiency improvement, and economic concerns. Oil demand rose by 0.9 mb/d to 103.1 mb/d, while supply also increased by 1.1 mb/d to 103.3 mb/d. Brent price averaged $ 78.2 per barrel amidst volatility. In CY24, Refinery throughput increased by 600 kb/d to reach 82.9 mb/d, led by new refineries capacity additions and stronger non- OECD throughputs.

In CY24, gasoline demand increased by only 89 kb/d and diesel growth deaccelerated by 158 kb/d. Major demand came from jet fuel, which surged by 397 kb/d. Key factors to watch in 2025 would be stagnating demand in China (EV penetration), aviation growth in Asia, geopolitical uncertainties and new economic policies (tariffs & sanctions).

With consistent government push for roads and air connectivity, Indian Petroleum Product demand rose to an all-time high of 239 MMTPA at 2.1% Y-o-Y growth. Climate consciousness has led to a sustained rise in charging network presence, (close to 40,000 charging stations) with a 6 million EV parc. CNGCBG vehicle parc has also touched 2 million.

Source: IEA, CMA, ICIS, Platts, CCF, WoodMac

Polymers & Elastomers
Global ethylene demand increased by 2.2% Y-o-Y to 185 MMT in CY24 with capacity addition of 4.6 MMT resulting in a higher operating rate by 1.9%.

Global Polymer demand increased to 254 MMT in CY24, compared to 247 MMT in CY23. In CY24, Global PE, PP, and PVC demand grew by 3.0%, 3.0% and 2.9%, respectively & domestic Polymer demand grew by 4.7%.

In FY 2024-25, domestic PP demand grew by 8.2%, driven by automotive, industrial and food packaging and PVC demand grew by 12.1%, led by agriculture and infrastructure sectors. LLDPE and LDPE demand grew by 8.0% and 0.7% respectively on account of demand from the packaging segment.

In FY 2024-25, US Ethane price was at 21 cpg, down by 9.0% Y-o-Y due to higher production of Ethane and Natural gas in US.

Global demand for E-SBR and PBR increased by 2.0% and 3.9% respectively in CY24 due to growth in light vehicle sector. During FY 2024-25, domestic SBR and PBR markets expanded by 2.7% and 11.7% Y-o-Y respectively driven by robust growth for Automobile OEMs.

Intermediates and Polyesters
In CY24, global Intermediates demand rose by 5.9% to 173 MMT though markets remained under pressure due to volatility in crude prices.

Global PX demand grew by 7.6% at 55 MMT in CY24 led by new capacity additions. PTA and MEG witnessed 5.4% and 5.0% growth respectively due to high downstream polyester operating rates.

Global Polyester demand grew by 4.9% to 93 MMT in CY24, driven by improvement in demand from Asian countries. Domestic Polyester demand grew by 5.4% in FY 2024-25. PET grew at 11.5% driven by higher demand from beverages segment.

PSF and PFY demand was up 3.0% & 3.5% respectively due to improvement in downstream operations. Textile demand from India improved as political turmoil in Bangladesh made customers divert orders to India.

PRODUCTION MEANT FOR SALE

Transportation Fuel
RIL’s transportation fuel segment in overall production meant for sale was higher driven by higher throughput and healthy domestic demand. Despite a challenging margin environment due to heightened refinery supply and global dynamics, RIL effectively managed the business environment. Cracks in key fuel categories declined: Singapore gasoline 92 RON cracks averaged $6.9/ bbl (vs $11.6/bbl), gasoil 10-ppm cracks at $14.4/bbl (vs $23.0/bbl), and jet/ kerosene cracks at $13.6/bbl (vs $21.2/ bbl). RIL’s strategic positioning and efficient operations ensured stability, exemplifying resilience, and adaptability amidst market complexities.

Jio-bp has a mobility station network of 1,916 outlets. With industry-leading value propositions including active technology powered high-performance fuels, Jio-bp registered all-time high sales in fleet HSD, on-demand HSD and MS. HSD/MS sales grew at 33.3%/41.6% against industry average of 1.2%/7.5%. With operational excellence, Jio-bp clocked 62% growth in ATF sales. Through innovative mobility solutions including charging stations, Jio-bp is playing a key role in India’s transition to low carbon fuels. Jio-bp Pulse has grown network to over 5,750 live charging points at 701 unique sites with industry leading charger uptime.

Polymers and Elastomers
Polymer prices remained volatile during FY 2024-25 amidst global capacity additions, slowdown in consumption and recessionary concerns in developed markets. Polymer margins contracted during FY 2024-25 with PP-Naphtha, HDPE-Naphtha and PVC margins down by 2.2%, 9.5% and 3.7%, respectively. US Ethane prices declined by 9.0% Y-o-Y and Asian Naphtha prices increased by 4.1% Y-o-Y.

Intermediates and Polyesters
In FY 2024-25, PX-Naphtha margins decreased by 34.4%, due to weak global demand and oversupply. Integrated producers continued to optimise production based on PX vs. gasoline economics. PTA-PX margins decreased by 11.6% due to significant capacity expansion of PTA in China. MEG-Naphtha margin surged 45.9% from a low base, driven by firm product prices due to low inventory in China.

PET margins weakened due to substantial capacity increase in China and sluggish demand growth in Western countries. Filament and Staple margins improved due to slowdown in capacity additions and improved China demand.