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In FY 2025-26, global oil demand growth remained highly volatile amid shifting macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions. Although demand momentum remained strong through first 3 quarters, it was sharply disrupted in March 2026 by the Middle East conflict. The ensuing Middle East crisis heightened uncertainty, disrupted trade flows, and weakened consumer demand. In FY 2025-26, global oil demand increased by 0.7 mb/d to 104.5 mb/d, while supply rose by 2.9 mb/d to 106.2 mb/d, resulting in surplus situation. Reflecting this imbalance, ICE Brent crude prices averaged at $69.1/bbl, down $9.12/bbl Y-o-Y.
Global refinery throughput in FY 2025-26 rose by 1.1 mb/d to 84 mb/d, supported by higher runs in Asia and the Middle East, driven by new capacity ramp-ups and improved refining margins. However, reduced Middle East runs in March weighed on FY 2025-26 throughput levels. FY 2025-26 also saw refinery capacity rationalisation of around 1.2 mb/d, majorly in Europe and North America, resulting in global refinery utilisation averaging 81%.
On the product side, gasoline demand rose Y-o-Y by 240 kb/d to 27.5 mb/d, diesel by 132 kb/d to 29.8 mb/d, and jet fuel by 204 kb/d to 8 mb/d in FY 2025-26. However, demand growth weakened in the fourth quarter, due to disrupted product flows through the Strait of Hormuz amid Middle East conflict which resulted in higher delivered prices across East-of-Suez markets.
Overall, FY 2025-26 oil market was shaped by rising OPEC+ supplies, evolving sanctions on Iran and Russia, escalating trade-tariff pressures, and the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, which together dampened demand growth and intensified price volatility.
India's petroleum demand is experiencing sustained growth on the back of government infrastructure push for greenfield access-controlled highways, rising vehicle population, increased industry activity and passenger and freight travel on roads and airways. The petroleum product demand rose to 243 MMTPA up 1.7% Y-o-Y. India is also balancing energy demand with long-term climate goals by building capacity for renewables and developing circular economy. A policy push has helped build charging network presence close to 70,000 charging stations and 8,500 gas stations with a rapidly increasing 7.5 to 8 million EV parc and 9 million CNG-CBG vehicle parc.
Source: IEA, CMA, ICIS, Platts, CCF, WoodMac, OPIS
Global ethylene demand increased by 1.7% Y-o-Y to 189.0 MMT in CY25 with capacity addition of 6.6 MMT resulting in marginal decrease in operating rate by 13 bps to 81.5%.
Global Polymer demand increased to 259.0 MMT in CY25, compared to 253.6 MMT in CY24. In CY25, Global PE, PP, and PVC demand grew by 2.0%, 2.6% and 1.7%, respectively.
In FY 2025-26, Domestic Polymer demand grew by 2.3%. PP domestic demand grew by 6.7%, driven by packaging, cement, furniture, households' sectors and PE demand grew by 2.9%, led by packaging, infrastructure, and FMCG sectors. PVC demand declined by 6.4% mainly in pipe sector on account of extended monsoon season.
Global demand for E-SBR and PBR increased by 1.6% and 1.0% respectively in CY25. During FY 2025-26, domestic SBR and PBR markets expanded by 7.2% and 8.0% Y-o-Y respectively driven by growth in Tyre sector.
In CY25, global Intermediates demand rose by 3.6% to 184.9 MMT, driven by higher polyester demand growth. Global PX demand grew by 3.7% at 58.3 MMT in CY25. PTA and MEG witnessed 3.6% and 3.4% growth, respectively, due to steady growth in downstream polyesters.
Global Polyester demand grew by 4.8% to 101.3 MMT in CY25, driven by improvement in demand from Asian countries. Global PSF, PFY, and PET demand grew by 5.0%, 4.8% and 4.7%, respectively.
In FY 2025-26, Domestic Polyester demand was stable. Domestic PSF and PFY demand grew by 4.7% and 1.3% respectively, led by improvement in downstream operations and GST rationalisation. However, PET domestic demand declined by 6.5% on account of extended monsoon and EPR mandate to use recycled PET.
| (₹ Crore) | FY 2025-26 | FY 2024-25 | Y-o-Y Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6,62,401 | 6,26,921 | 5.7% |
| EBITDA | 60,546 | 54,988 | 10.1% |
| EBITDA margin | 9.1% | 8.8% | 30 bps |
O2C Revenue for FY 2025-26 increased by 5.7% Y-o-Y to ` 6,62,401 crore (US$ 69.9 billion) primarily on account of higher domestic product placement and better price realisation.
O2C EBITDA for FY 2025-26 was at ` 60,546 crore (US$ 6.4 billion) led by stronger transportation fuel cracks, efficient feedstock sourcing and higher domestic product placement. Earnings were constrained by weak downstream chemical margins and disruptions caused by Middle East conflict towards the year-end.
| Particulars | Products | FY 2025-26 | FY 2024-25 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transportation Fuels |
Gasoil | 26.8 | 25.7 |
| Gasoline/Alkylate | 14.9 | 15.7 | |
| ATF | 5.2 | 5.3 | |
| Polymers | PP | 3.1 | 3.0 |
| PE | 2.3 | 2.2 | |
| PVC | 0.8 | 0.8 | |
| Elastomers | 0.4 | 0.4 | |
| Intermediates and Polyesters |
PX and By-products | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Benzene and Derivatives | 0.5 | 0.5 | |
| PTA | 2.1 | 2.3 | |
| MEG and By-products | 1.2 | 1.1 | |
| Filament | 1.6 | 1.7 | |
| Staple | 0.8 | 0.9 | |
| PET | 1.0 | 1.1 | |
| Others | Fuels, Solids and Others | 8.8 | 9.2 |
| Total | 70.9 | 71.2 | |
RIL's transportation fuel segment overall production meant for sale optimised to capture improved fuel margins.
Despite a challenging margin environment with heightened disruptions in trade flows due to global geopolitics, RIL effectively navigated the business environment. Cracks in key fuel categories improved this year compared to last year due to steady demand growth, an uncertain geopolitical, policy environment and increased refinery outages. Singapore gasoline 92 RON cracks averaged $9.3/bbl (vs $7/bbl last year), gasoil 10-ppm cracks at $23.6/bbl (vs $14.4/ bbl), and jet/kerosene cracks at $22.8/ bbl (vs $13.6/bbl). RIL's strategic positioning and efficient and flexible operations ensured maximum netbacks by adapting to market volatility and complexities.
Jio-bp's 'Active Technology' fuels deliver extra mileage at no added cost to the customer, helping the company outperform the industry. Superior fleet and driver loyalty programmes boost sales in fleet and on-demand door-delivery segment.
In partnership with IndusInd Bank and RuPay, Jio-bp launched the ‘Mobility+ Credit Card' with fuel, lifestyle, and UPI benefits for on-the-go consumers. Operating 2,199 Jio-bp outlets nationwide, Reliance BP Mobility Limited's (RBML) HSD sales grew 29% and MS 32% Y-o-Y, outperforming industry growth of 3.1% and 6.5%, respectively.
Jio-bp is enabling India's energy transition to low carbon fuels. Under 'Jio-bp Pulse', RBML has set up 6,200+ charging points across 1,071 sites, delivering 35 GWh with leading uptime. The Gas Mobility network has expanded to 162 sites, while the 'CleanNGreen' CBG network has reached 112 outlets sourcing gas from RIL biogas plants. RBML also operates 50 CNG outlets, with plans to accelerate rollout.
Polymer prices remained under pressure during FY 2025-26 amidst higher global capacity additions. Polymer delta's witnessed mixed trend during FY 2025-26. HDPE-Naphtha and PVC delta were higher by 1.5% and 1.3% respectively, while PP-Naphtha declined by 5.1%. Feedstock price trend was mixed. Asian Naphtha prices decreased by 7.1% Y-o-Y, while US Ethane prices increased by 15.6% Y-o-Y led by higher US gas prices. For RIL ethane cracking remained favourable despite high ethane price.
In FY 2025-26, Polyester Chain delta declined by 1.2%. PX-Naphtha delta was up 3.3%. Integrated producers continued to optimise production based on PX vs. gasoline economics. PTA-PX delta decreased by 9.8% due to significant capacity expansion of PTA in China. MEG-Naphtha delta declined marginally by 0.6%. PET delta weakened due to substantial capacity increase in China. Filament and Staple delta remained range bound due to increased China exports and US tariff disruption.
Global oil demand growth is expected to be sluggish due to higher oil prices and economic slowdown in FY 2026-27
amid Middle East conflict. Refinery and oil infrastructure damages which caused product supply losses are likely
to take a longer period to recover, resulting in continual volatility in the market. The FY 2026-27 outlook remains
extremely vulnerable to geopolitical, macro-economic and policy risks.
In FY 2026-27, volatile product and feedstock prices, supply disruptions from the Middle East, Government of India
directives on SAED, petrochemical feedstock usage and duty exemption on key petrochemical products may weigh
on domestic demand and margins.
